Figure 825

Comparison of prognostic methods for acute renal failure (ARF) by ROC curve analysis [31]. A method is better when its ROC-curve moves to the upper left square determined by the sensitivity and the reciprocal of the specificity. A, ROC curves of seven prognostic methods usually employed in the ICU setting. The best curve comes from the APACHE III method, which has an area under the ROC curve of 0.74 ± 0.04 (SE). B, Four ROC curves corresponding to prognostic methods specifically developed for ARF patients are depicted. The best curve in this panel comes from the Liano method for ARF prognosis. Its area under the curve is 0.78 ± 0.03 (SE). APACHE—Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation, (II second version [21]; III third version [22]); SAPS—Simplified Acute Physiology Score [23]; SAPS-R— SAPS-reduced [33]; SAPS-E—SAPS-Extended [32]; SS—Sickness Score [33]; MPM—Mortality Prediction Model [25]; ROC curve—Receiving Operating Characteristic curve; SE—Standard Error. (From Douma [31]; with permission.)

ACUTE RENAL FAILURE: VARIABLES STUDIED WITH UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS

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